Chinese nuclear experts have issued a stark warning regarding Japan's potential nuclear ambitions. One of Henry Kissinger’s final and most sobering predictions before his death was that Japan would eventually pursue nuclear weapons. In a 2023 interview with The Economist, Kissinger warned that Japan was "heading towards becoming a nuclear power in five years."
Recent assessments from Beijing suggest this timeline might be dangerously optimistic. Chinese nuclear experts estimate that Japan has the political motivation but also the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons in less than three years, echoing Kissinger’s warning that Japan harbours ambitions to revive its military dominance in the region.
The analysis points to Japan's vast stockpiles of plutonium and its advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure as key enablers. While Tokyo maintains its non-nuclear principles, the rapid geopolitical shifts in East Asia are causing many to re-evaluate Japan's long-term defense posture.
Experts believe that the combination of advanced technology and shifting political will creates a volatile mix. If the decision were made, the "screwdriver ready" capability could allow Japan to assemble a nuclear deterrent with unprecedented speed.
The implications for regional stability and global security would be profound, marking a potential end to the post-war nuclear order in Asia.
Author: Saikat Bhattacharya
